Summary/Background
In most examination questions Method 2 above is easier to apply and is therefore preferred.
Blaise Pascal (June 19, 1623 – August 19, 1662), mathematician and philosopher, was educated at home by his father, himself a considerable mathematician. The origins of probability are usually found in the correspondence between Pascal and Fermat where they treated several problems associated with games of chance. The letters were not published but their contents were known in Parisian scientific circles. Pascal's only probability publication was the posthumously published Traite du triangle arithmetique (1654); this treated Pascal's triangle with probability applications. Pascal introduced the concept of expectation and discussed the problem of gambler's ruin.

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Glossary
expectation
of a random variable X and denoted by E(X), where E(X) = sum of all values of x.P(X=x).
This question appears in the following syllabi:
Syllabus | Module | Section | Topic | Exam Year |
---|---|---|---|---|
AQA A-Level (UK - Pre-2017) | S1 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
AQA A2 Maths 2017 | Statistics | Probability | Conditional Probability | - |
AQA AS/A2 Maths 2017 | Statistics | Probability | Conditional Probability | - |
CBSE XII (India) | Probability | Probability | Total probability | - |
CBSE XI (India) | Statistics and Probability | Probability | Probability of 'not ,'and', 'or' events | - |
CCEA A-Level (NI) | S1 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
CIE A-Level (UK) | S1 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
Edexcel A-Level (UK - Pre-2017) | S1 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
Edexcel A2 Maths 2017 | Statistics | Conditional Probability | Conditional Probability | - |
Edexcel AS/A2 Maths 2017 | Statistics | Conditional Probability | Conditional Probability | - |
I.B. Higher Level | 5 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
I.B. Standard Level | 5 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
Methods (UK) | M15 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
I.B. (MSSL) | 3 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
OCR A-Level (UK - Pre-2017) | S4 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
OCR A2 Maths 2017 | Statistics | Conditional Probability | Conditional Probability | - |
OCR MEI A2 Maths 2017 | Statistics | Conditional Probability | Conditional Probability | - |
OCR-MEI A-Level (UK - Pre-2017) | S1 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
Pre-Calculus (US) | E4 | Probability | Theoretical | - |
Pre-U A-Level (UK) | Prob | Probability | Theoretical | - |
Scottish (Highers + Advanced) | HS | Probability | Theoretical | - |
Scottish Highers | S | Probability | Theoretical | - |
Universal (all site questions) | P | Probability | Theoretical | - |
WJEC A-Level (Wales) | S1 | Probability | Theoretical | - |